March
24, 2015—This past year, Barna Group has spent a considerable amount of
time studying the unchurched—those who have not attended church within
the past six months.
Much of that research is collected in the new Barna project
Churchless,
edited by David Kinnaman and George Barna. One of the most remarkable
findings is that unchurched people are not always unbelievers—in fact,
most aren’t. The majority are non-practicing Christians: They claim
Christianity as their faith, but they haven’t been to church in a long
time.
But what about atheists and agnostics? Are their numbers on the rise?
Are more and more of the unchurched becoming unbelievers, too?
Who Are the Atheists? For reporting purposes at Barna, we often combine atheists and agnostics into one group, which we call
skeptics.
Skeptics either do not believe God exists (atheists) or are not sure
God exists, but are open to the possibility (agnostics). Skeptics
represent one-quarter of all unchurched adults (25%). Nearly one-third
of skeptics have never attended a Christian church service in their
lives (31%). That’s nearly double the proportion of “virgin unchurched”
who are
not skeptics (17%).
The profile of a typical skeptic is different today from a decade or
two ago. Today’s skeptics, like their counterparts from two decades ago,
are defined by their denial of or doubts about God’s existence. But
that is about the only thing they have in common with the unchurched
atheist or agnostic of yesteryear. Below are five demographic shifts
among skeptics in the past two decades.
Five Demographic Shifts among Skeptics They are younger.
Skeptics today are, on average, younger than in the past. Twenty years
ago, 18 percent of skeptics were under 30 years old. Today that
proportion has nearly doubled to 34 percent—nearly one-quarter of the
total U.S. population (23%, compared to 17% in 1991). By the same token,
the proportion of skeptics who are 65 or older has been cut in half,
down to just 7 percent of the segment.
They are more educated. Today’s skeptics tend to be
better educated than in the past. Two decades ago, one-third of skeptics
were college graduates, but today half of the group has a college
degree.
More of them are women. Perhaps the biggest
transition of all is the entry of millions of women into the skeptic
ranks. In 1993 only 16 percent of atheists and agnostics were women. By
2013 that figure had nearly tripled to 43 percent. This enormous
increase is not because the number of skeptic men has declined. In fact,
men’s numbers have steadily increased over the last two decades—but not
nearly as rapidly as among women.
They are more racially diverse. Religious skepticism
has become more racially and ethnically inclusive. While whites
represented 80 percent of all skeptics 20 years ago, that figure had
dropped to 74 percent by 2013. This is largely a reflection of the
increasing Hispanic and Asian adults among the skeptic cohort. Asian
Americans, the least-Christian ethnic demographic in the United States,
especially tend to embrace skepticism. While a growing number of
skeptics are Hispanic, they still remain, along with Blacks, less likely
than other ethnic groups to accept the idea of a world without God.
White Americans, who constitute two-thirds of the country’s total
population, are well above average in their embrace of atheism and
agnosticism; they comprise three-quarters of the skeptic segment.
They are more dispersed regionally. In decades past,
the Northeast and West were seen as isolated hotbeds of atheism and
agnosticism. They still remain the areas where skeptics are more likely
to live, but the skeptic population is now broadly dispersed across all
regions.
In many ways, skeptics resemble the rest of America more than they
once did. And their numbers are growing more quickly than anyone
expected 20 years ago.
Three Components of Disbelief Just as believers
arrive at their belief in God by amassing a variety of information and
experiences, skeptics piece together different inputs to draw their
conclusions. According to our research, however, it seems the three
primary components that lead to disbelief in God’s existence are 1)
rejection of the Bible, 2) a lack of trust in the local church and 3)
cultural reinforcement of a secular worldview.
Skeptics dismiss the idea that the Bible is holy or supernatural in
any way. Two-thirds contend that it is simply a book of well-known
stories and advice, written by humans and containing the same degree of
authority and wisdom as any other self-help book. The remaining
one-third are divided between those who believe the Bible is a
historical document that contains the unique but not God-inspired
accounts of events that happened in the past, and those who do not know
what to make of the Bible but have decided it deserves no special
treatment or consideration.
Given their antipathy or indifference toward the Bible, it is
remarkable that six out of 10 skeptics own at least one copy. Most have
read from it in the past, and a handful (almost exclusively agnostics)
still read it at least once a month. The fact is, most skeptics have
some firsthand experience with the Bible, and most had some regular
exposure to it during their youth.
Read more about atheists and skeptics—and how to connect with them—in the Barna project Churchless
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Churches have done little to convince skeptics to reevaluate. In fact, because
more than two-thirds of skeptics have attended Christian churches in the past—most
for an extended period of time—their dismissal of God, the Bible and
churches is not theoretical in nature. Most skeptics think of Christian
churches as:
- Groups of people who share a common physical space and have some
common religious views, but are not personally connected to each other
in meaningful or life-changing ways
- Organizations that add little, if any, value to their communities;
their greatest value stems from the limited times they serve the needy
in the community
- Organizations that stand for the wrong things—wars, preventing gay
marriage and a woman’s freedom to control her body, sexual and physical
violence perpetrated on people by religious authority figures, mixing
religious beliefs with political policy and action
- Led by people who have not earned their positions of influence by
proving their love of humankind, and are thus not deserving of trust
Many of these ideas are initiated, promoted and reinforced by
celebrity personalities and media exposure. There has arisen a new
stratum of anti-religion celebrity apologists that includes Bill Maher,
Sam Harris, Richard Dawkins, Stephen Hawking, Peter Singer, Woody Allen,
Phillip Roth, Julia Sweeney and the late Christopher Hitchens. It’s a
chicken-or-egg conundrum to identify which came first: the atheist
celebrity or an uptick in the number of atheists. Whatever the case,
atheism has shifted in the past 50 years from cultural anathema to
something the “cooler” kids are doing.
Understanding Today’s “Post-Christian” Trends
While what’s happening among self-identified atheists and agnostics is
an important measure of belief trends, which corresponds with the
much-examined “rise of the ‘nones,’”it is also important to look at
actual faith practices and attitudes. This is why, at Barna Group, we
have developed
a “post-Christian” metric that helps us look at multi-dimensional factors to describe the rich and variegated experience of spirituality and faith.
This metric is based on 15 different measures of identity, belief and
behavior. To qualify as post-Christian, individuals meet 60 percent or
more of the factors (nine or more out of 15 criteria). Highly
post-Christian individuals meet 80 percent or more of the factors (12 or
more of 15 criteria).
These factors include a variety of practices (prayer, donating to a
church, volunteering at a church, reading the Bible, etc.) and beliefs
(belief in God, prioritizing faith, beliefs about the Bible, commitment
to Jesus, etc.). You can see all 15 factors in
this infographic.
Based on Barna’s aggregate metric, nearly two-fifths of the nation’s
adult population qualifies as post-Christian (38%). This includes one in
10 Americans who are highly post-Christian—lacking engagement in 80
percent or more of the measures of belief, practice and commitment.
Another one-quarter is moderately post-Christian (28%), refraining from
at least 60 percent of the factors.
Analyzing the nation’s post-Christian profile gives an important
viewpoint on the population’s spiritual, moral and social future. While
self-described atheism and agnosticism may be on the rise in America,
the post-Christian metric reminds observers that most Americans remain
connected in some way with Christianity.
What the Research Means David Kinnaman,
president of Barna Group, says, “The data show that some cities—and
younger generations—are more gospel-resistant than others. It is
increasingly common among Millennials to dismiss religion, God,
churches, authority and tradition. For years, some observers have
claimed colleges and universities are a breeding ground for anti-God
sentiment. The data does lend support to the notion that college
campuses are comfortable places for young people to abandon God and
assume control of their own lives.
“Yet in spite of clear trends and obvious needs, our research
suggests that most of the efforts of Christian ministries fail to reach
much beyond the core of ‘Christianized’ America. It’s much easier to
work with this already-sympathetic audience than to focus on the
so-called ‘nones.’ And it’s no mystery why: Figuring out how to
effectively engage skeptics is difficult. One of the unexpected results
we uncovered is the limited influence of personal relationships on
skeptics. They are considerably less relational and less engaged in
social activities than the average American. Christians for whom
‘ministry is about relationships’ may be disappointed when they find
that many skeptics are not as enamored of relational bonds as are those
who are already a part of church life.
“But in giving his followers the Great Commission, Jesus didn’t
mention anything about doing what is easy. New levels of courage and
clarity will be required to connect beyond the Christianized majority.”
Hear David Kinnaman discuss trends in skepticism and atheism in a new CNN special report,
“Atheists: Inside the World of Non-Believers” premiering
tonight, March 24, at 9:00 EST.
Comment on this research and follow our work:
Twitter:
@davidkinnaman |
@roxyleestone |
@ClintJenkin |
@barnagroup Facebook:
Barna Group
About the Research This research contains data
from twenty surveys, encompassing interviews with more than 23,000
churched and unchurched adults. The number of unchurched adults involved
was 8,220.
These surveys were done using random digit-dial telephone samples for
landlines and listed cell phone samples for calls to mobile phones.
Each of the studies entailed completing interviews with a minimum of
1,000 randomly chosen adults. The samples were developed to provide a
reliable representation of the national population of people ages
eighteen or older living within the forty-eight continental states. The
estimated maximum sampling error for each survey of 1,000 adults was
plus or minus 3.1%age points at the 95% confidence level; the maximum
sampling error estimate diminished as sample size increased. The number
of interviews completed with cell-phone owners was based on federal
government estimates of the number of cell-only households.
The January 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014 surveys also included samples
of approximately 1,000 adults conducted online. Those studies relied on a
research panel called KnowledgePanel®, created and maintained by
Knowledge Networks. It is a probability-based online non-volunteer
access panel. Panel members are recruited using a statistically valid
sampling method with a published sample frame of residential addresses
that covers approximately 97% of US households. Sampled non-Internet
households, when recruited, are provided a netbook computer and free
Internet service so they may also participate as online panel members.
KnowledgePanel consists of about 50,000 adult members (ages eighteen and
older) and includes persons living in cell- only households.
In all of these surveys regional and ethnic quotas were designed to
ensure that the final group of adults inter- viewed reflected the
distribution of adults nationwide and adequately represented the three
primary ethnic groups within the United States (those groups that
comprise at least 10% of the population: white, black, and Hispanic).
Those quotas were based on current US Census Bureau data regarding the
population. Additional quotas were employed to balance the gender of
respondents included in the samples. Upon completion of a survey, the
data were run and the demographic outcomes were compared to the census
statistics on key demographic attributes. In some cases the full survey
database was then statistically weighted to bring the database into
closer approximation of the true population proportions.
study conducted in: |
Total |
Unchurched adult sample |
January 2008 |
1,004 |
277 |
May 2008 |
1,003 |
331 |
July 2008 |
1,005 |
301 |
August 2008 |
1,005 |
305 |
October 2008 |
1,014 |
327 |
November 2008 |
1,198 |
299 |
July 2009 |
1,003 |
315 |
September 2009 |
1,004 |
284 |
January 2010 |
1,008 |
240 |
February 2010 |
1,005 |
305 |
August 2010 |
1,002 |
368 |
December 2010 |
1,022 |
311 |
January 2011 |
1,622 |
615 |
August 2011 |
1,007 |
324 |
January 2012 |
2,025 |
920 |
March 2012 |
1,020 |
386 |
April 2012 |
1,062 |
340 |
May 2012 |
1,009 |
371 |
November 2012 |
1,008 |
338 |
January 2013 |
2,083 |
952 |
January 2014 |
1,024 |
556 |
About Barna Group Barna Group (which includes
its research division, Barna Research Group) is a private, non-partisan,
for-profit organization under the umbrella of the Issachar Companies.
Located in Ventura, California, Barna Group has been conducting and
analyzing primary research to understand cultural trends related to
values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors since 1984.
If you would like to receive free e-mail notification of the release
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© Barna Group, 2015.